Breckenridge and Summit County Real Estate Market Report 2008
Market Analysis 2008
When the laws of supply and demand are quantified through average annual statistical data the results may not reflect what actually happened towards the end of that year or the current market conditions today. This situation happened with regards to these figures presented to you. The current listing prices for properties since the third quarter have been coming down, when these properties sell the averages will be reduced. This was happening towards the end of last year but not enough to change the annual average. To clarify the source of these figures, the total dollar volume is taken from the Summit County Assessors data, the average property prices is taken from the Summit Association of Realtors MLS. The reason I use a combination of the two, is that I feel it gives a more accurate picture of actual sales averages. The County data mixes in partial ownership transfers which is not reflective of the true value of the property being conveyed. The MLS data may capture 97% of all real estate transactions within the county but it categorizes more accurately and the potential 3% that is missing would not significantly skew the figures. The MLS data also indicates the amount of inventory, a vital fact for studying current market conditions. So, using a combination of the two is more realistic as to what is actually happening.
When the laws of supply and demand are quantified through average annual statistical data the results may not reflect what actually happened towards the end of that year or the current market conditions today. This situation happened with regards to these figures presented to you. The current listing prices for properties since the third quarter have been coming down, when these properties sell the averages will be reduced. This was happening towards the end of last year but not enough to change the annual average. To clarify the source of these figures, the total dollar volume is taken from the Summit County Assessors data, the average property prices is taken from the Summit Association of Realtors MLS. The reason I use a combination of the two, is that I feel it gives a more accurate picture of actual sales averages. The County data mixes in partial ownership transfers which is not reflective of the true value of the property being conveyed. The MLS data may capture 97% of all real estate transactions within the county but it categorizes more accurately and the potential 3% that is missing would not significantly skew the figures. The MLS data also indicates the amount of inventory, a vital fact for studying current market conditions. So, using a combination of the two is more realistic as to what is actually happening.
The total County dollar volume dropped 35% from $1,630,738,800 to $1,065,729,100 which is about the same as 2004 levels. The Breckenridge valley claimed nearly 50% of that volume with $523,613,100.
Single family homes prices in the Breckenridge area averaged $1,036,935 compared to $1,003,930 for 2007, a 3.3% increase. Countywide for 2008 the average price was $950,621 compared to $925,241 in 2007, a 2.7% increase.
Multifamily average sales price in the Breckenridge area increased to $693,458 compared to $545,493 in 2007, a whopping 27% increase!. A main part of this was the closing of the high end Crystal Peak Lodge units in November. Countywide the average price for 2008 was $492,935 compared to $435,181 in 2007, a 13% increase.
Land sales average prices in the county went up from $405,941 in 2007 to $577,181 a 42% increase! However, there were a total of 313 land sales in 2007 compared with only 131 in 2008! In the Breckenridge valley land sales in 2007 averaged $444,549 compared to $557,177 a 25% increase. Total land transactions were down from 190 sales in 2007 compared with only 75 in 2008.
The overall housing real estate market for Summit County in 2007 saw the number of sales decline along with the total dollar sales volume. Meanwhile, the average sales price continued to set records. Sales topped $1 billion for the third consecutive year.
All housing sales for 2007 county-wide posted in at 1,993, down from 2006 sales of 2,809. The total dollar volume of $1,036,918,210 represented an 18.6% decline over the 2006 total ($1,274,412,429). The average selling price of all housing came in at $520,280, a 14.7% climb. The average price of a single family home jumped from $785,564 to $798,295 – a 1.6% increase.
Breckenridge and Summit County Real Estate Market Report for 2007
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Housing sales in the Breckenridge Valley for 2007 have also declined from 2006 levels 691 vs. 1,029. The total dollar sales volume of $476.0m was a 20.5% decrease over the 2006 level of $598.8m. The average selling price of all housing in the Upper Blue area took a huge jump of over $100,000 to $688,853 – an incredible 18.4% rise. Appreciation in the Breckenridge area has averaged 12.1% per year since 1993. This area continues to dominate the sales picture with 45.9% of total dollar County sales.
Not to be discounted were the phenomenal number of contracts put in place for the new developments in Breckenridge. These will not close until 2009 but they were Buyers committing to purchase property that is not reflected in the 2007 year.
Lot sales posted county-wide at 298 sales, down from 459 sales in 2006. The total dollar volume of $112,373,645 represented a considerable 19.5% decrease over the 2006 volume of $139,575,100. The average selling price of a subdivided lot ended the year at $377,093 – up 24.0% over 2006’s average of $304,085.
Lot sales in the Breckenridge area declined also to 179 sales from 288 sales in 2006. The dollar volume also decreased to $72.8m from $89.7m, representing an 18.8% fall. The positive picture is that the average selling price of a lot came in at $406,876 for 2007, 30.7% higher than last year and 7.9% higher than the County average. Sales of lots in the Upper Blue River Valley represented 64.8% of the total County dollar volume.
The inventory of properties available for sale is slightly up from last year at 2,248 listings compared to 2,184. This is a crucial indicator. Lack of inventory and availability has frustrated many Buyers which is one factor in total reduced sales. However, looking at the larger picture, this reflects what happened to us in 2001-2002.
In 2008, I predict our inventory will increase resulting in average prices leveling out. This is typical of our market, and considering what happens in primary real estate markets around the nation, we are lucky that we historically stabilize by leveling out and not depreciating overall.
If you would like more information or have questions, please contact
Andrew Biggin 970-547-7751 or
Andrew@BreckenridgeHomes.Net.